# 服務業成長9.3%，次級產業包括製造、建築及公用事業成長8.8%。

*business · news · 2026-06-05 · ThePrint*

## Key points

- 2025-26財年私人最終消費支出成長7.7%，高於先前的5.8%。
- 由於能源價格及供應中斷，印度央行將2026-27財年通膨預測上調至5.1%。
- 印度央行將2026-27財年實質GDP成長預測從6.9%下調至6.6%。
- 首席經濟顧問透露，製造業在過去三年中有兩年達到兩位數成長。
- 持續的地緣政治不確定性預期將對印度的通膨、經常帳及貨幣造成壓力。

Overall, the services sector grew by 9.3 percent, while the secondary sector, comprising manufacturing, construction and utilities grew by 8.8 percent. The primary sector which includes agriculture and allied activities, grew by just 3.2 percent. On the demand side, Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)–a key measure of household spending–grew 7.7 percent in FY2025-26, up from 5.8 percent in the previous year. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a measure of investment activity, grew by 8.2 percent compared to 6.4 percent growth in FY2024-25. Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran described FY2025-26 growth pattern as broad-based. “The gratifying thing is not only the pickup in services sector growth rate, but also more than double digit growth in the manufacturing sector in two out of the last three years,” he said. The sharp rise in investment, Arya Roy Bardhan, junior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), told ThePrint, was particularly encouraging as it “improves the quality of growth by reducing dependence on consumption alone and creating conditions for future productivity gains”. However, he cautioned that weak agricultural growth could constrain rural incomes if it persists. “The Q4 GDP growth of 7.4 percent is a welcome sign, suggesting that economic activity strengthened towards the end of the fiscal year despite an uncertain global backdrop,” Aashi Gupta, associate fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), told ThePrint. She attributed the acceleration largely to strong construction activity and continued resilience in services. However, economists cautioned that sustaining the momentum will require stronger private-sector participation and broader gains in employment and incomes. “The challenge going forward is less about achieving high headline growth rates and more about ensuring that growth translates into stronger job creation, income gains and a more broad-based recovery in private demand,” Gupta said. Also Read: Global economic order is fractured, India must brace for harsher world—CEA Nageswaran at CII summit Outlook for FY2026-27 The GDP data comes on a day when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent. Citing the prolonged West Asia conflict and elevated energy prices, the central bank revised its inflation projection for FY2026-27 upward to 5.1 percent from 4.6 percent earlier. The RBI also lowered its real GDP growth forecast for FY2026-27 to 6.6 percent from 6.9 percent, pointing to higher energy costs and moderation in domestic demand. In a statement, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said prices of key inputs, including commercial LPG, industrial raw materials, chemicals, base metals, rubber and plastic products, have increased which could exert upward pressure on inflation as firms pass on higher costs. He further added that the global environment has deteriorated since the last policy meeting. “The adverse implications of the extended disruption in supply chains and elevated energy prices are reflected in the moderation of growth and increase in inflation projections from the April policy.” According to Bardhan of ORF, prolonged geopolitical uncertainty is likely to put pressure on inflation, the current account and the rupee before materially affecting economic growth. As for RBI’s projections for FY2026-27, Nageswaran said that the central bank’s projections offered a reasonable assessment of current risks. “We have no reason to second-guess them at this point because there are both possibilities on the upside and on the downside with respect to the numbers that they had presented us this morning.” The CEA stressed that uncertainty around crude oil prices remains the biggest risk to both growth and inflation. At the same time, he pointed to encouraging signs in trade and domestic activity. “Most high frequency indicators suggest that domestic demand and overall economic activity have remained relatively resilient.” (Edited by Tony Rai) Also Read: FTA partners drive India’s trade surge as reliance on non-FTA countries dips, says NITI Aayog report

**Countries:** India

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