# Deloitte 印度的 Rumki Majumdar 表示，GVA 成長率達 7.9% 超過 GDP 成長，顯示印度的擴張不僅僅是需求驅動。

*business · news · 2026-06-06 · Outlook Business*

## Key points

- GVA 成長率為 7.9%，超過 GDP，顯示印度的擴張同時由生產驅動。
- 政府提前加大資本支出，在私人投資情緒疲弱時支撐經濟成長。
- 西亞衝突對三月影響有限，但未來幾個月可能出現干擾。
- 政府推動外資投資及放寬進口措施，預期將增加資本流入。

"We maintain our GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2027 at 6.6%, with risks tilted to the downside. Despite the slowdown in real GDP, the nominal GDP growth is set to be higher due to higher inflation based on both Wholesale Price Index and the Consumer Price Index." Deloitte India's Rumki Majumdar said the fact that GVA growth at 7.9% outpaced GDP growth suggests that India's expansion was not solely demand-driven but also backed by strong production momentum. Performance across services, manufacturing and construction indicates that the economy has entered a period of global uncertainty from a position of strength, which should help it better absorb potential supply-side shocks. "We remain cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook in the next FY. We believe tensions in the Middle East will ease over the coming months and that associated supply-chain disruptions will gradually subside by the end of the year. India's strong domestic demand, coupled with proactive government intervention, should help cushion the economy from external headwinds. The government's front-loaded capital expenditure programme is already providing an important growth buffer at a time when private investment sentiment remains cautious," she said. Majumdar said the government has absorbed a large part of the Middle East crisis in March by keeping pump prices of petrol and diesel stable while ensuring that LPG supply was maintained. "The government's measures to improve foreign investment flows into equities and government securities, address tax-related concerns and ease imports will help increase capital flows into the country, which will boost the momentum of investments that has picked up last year." Radhika Rao, Senior Economist & Executive Director, DBS Bank said high frequency data for rural and urban demand points to relative resilience in the January-March quarter. "While the US-Iran conflict broke out towards the end of 4QFY26, output in the quarter was relatively insulated from bulk of adverse impact, with corporates tackling a build-up in cost pressures by tapping into inventories. Certain pockets of manufacturing activity, however, were impacted, including fertiliser, cement, etc." Markets, she said, are likely to move on from the backward looking data and focus on potential spillover risks into FY27, particularly given the prospect of a prolonged disruption in the supply of critical inputs to downstream industries, higher energy as well as food costs impacting purchasing power and tighter financial conditions. HDFC Bank said it was encouraging to see that growth remained broad based with a pickup in consumer spending as well as investments last fiscal. "The rise in investments stands out, particularly as government spending had moderated in Q4 FY26, signalling that expansion in private investments was likely the key driver. Sector wise data shows that services like trade, hotels, transport and communication grew at a healthy pace, along with continued momentum in manufacturing and construction activity." The upbeat GDP growth print confirms -- the impact of the West Asia conflict was limited in the month of March; consumer spending continued to benefit from GST and interest rate cuts even in Q4 FY26; and overall economic momentum held up despite tariff risks in FY26, it said "That said, we would be cautious in linearly extrapolating recent trends. The disruption due to the conflict is likely to start showing up in economic data only over the coming months," it said. Looking ahead, the bank estimated GDP growth at 6.5% for FY27 assuming oil average of $95 per barrel, with a moderation expected on account of squeeze in margins due to rise in energy costs; some moderation in consumer demand on account of higher inflation, possible interest rate increase, and a below normal monsoon; rising fiscal pressures could lead to some compression in government capex; and global uncertainty weighs on investment decisions by private players.

**Companies:** HDFC Bank
**Countries:** India, United States, Iran

[Read the full story on Outlook Business](https://www.outlookbusiness.com/economy-and-policy/gdp-beats-forecasts-but-west-asia-conflict-clouds-indias-growth-outlook)

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