# 自伊朗戰爭爆發以來，基準10年期殖利率上升約34個基點至7%。

*business · news · 2026-06-01 · Moneycontrol*

## Key points

- 自伊朗戰爭爆發以來，印度10年期公債殖利率上升34個基點至7%。
- Kotak Mahindra Bank預測印度今年財政赤字可能擴大至4.6%-4.8%。
- Tata AMC與Bandhan AMC預測本輪印度央行將加息75至100個基點。
- 衍生性商品市場反映激進的加息預期，5年期利率交換合約上漲超過60個基點。
- 大量石油進口與更高補貼使印度特別容易受到能源驅動的財政壓力影響。

The recent surge in Indian bond yields may extend as investors weigh prospects of interest-rate hikes, while concerns grow over the government’s fiscal position. The benchmark 10-year yield is up about 34 basis points to 7% since the outbreak of the Iran war three months ago. IndusInd Bank Ltd. expects it to touch 7.45% by end-2026, while Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. sees it trading in a range of 6.8%-7.4% until March. “Sovereign yields would continue to trade with an upward bias,” said Gaurav Kapur, chief economist at IndusInd. “Markets are pricing in monetary tightening. Pressure on public finances on account of a likely increase in fuel and fertilizer subsidies could push yields upwards too, especially given the sizable gross market borrowing program.” The Reserve Bank of India may be under pressure to raise borrowing costs in its decision due Friday, as a weaker rupee and higher oil costs fuel inflation concerns. While most economists expect it to keep rates unchanged for now, investors will be watching for signs the central bank is turning hawkish. Tata Asset Management Pvt. and Bandhan AMC Ltd. expect about 75-100 basis points of rate hikes in the current cycle. India is not alone in facing bond selloff from the Iran war and energy disruptions, but the country is particularly vulnerable given its heavy oil imports and extensive government subsidies on fuel and fertilizers. Lower government revenues, due to a possible shortage in tax and asset-sale receipts, and higher subsidies may widen the fiscal deficit to 4.6% of the gross domestic product in the current fiscal year that started April 1, from a budgeted 4.3%, according to Kotak Mahindra Bank. In a more adverse scenario, it can even widen to 4.8%, it said. Some money managers, including ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. and Quantum Asset Management Co. Pvt., expect the RBI to be cautious on rate hikes, given inflation stems from supply‑side shocks in energy rather than demand. “India’s bond market today is trading fear of inflation, not actual runaway inflation,” said Sneha Pandey, debt fund manager at Quantum Asset. “The market today is effectively pricing a prolonged inflation scare. I suspect reality will prove less dramatic.” Still, derivatives markets are pricing in aggressive rate hikes, with the five-year interest-rate swap having risen over 60 basis points since the outbreak of the war. Shorter government bonds are bearing the brunt of the selloff, with the five-year tenor rising 54 basis points. Besides, the oil shock has coincided with record foreign outflows from equities pushing the rupee toward record lows, and prompting currency-market interventions from the monetary authority. “India’s bond yields are being shaped by prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, which is affecting fiscal expectations, alongside elevated global yields and a weaker rupee,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore. This week’s main economic events:Monday, June 1: China RatingDog manufacturing PMI, Japan 1Q company profits and capital spending, South Korea trade balanceTuesday, June 2: South Korea CPI, Indonesia CPI and trade balance, Australia 1Q BoP current account balance, net exports of GDP, inventories and company operating profit, RBA’s Harper speaksWednesday, June 3: Australia 1Q GDP, BOJ Governor Ueda speaks, New Zealand 1Q terms of trade, China RatingDog services PMIThursday, June 4: Australia trade balance, New Zealand 1Q volume of all buildingsFriday, June 5: RBI rate decision and India 1Q GDP, Philippines CPI, Japan labor cash earnings, RBA’s Hauser speaks, Taiwan CPI and PPI, South Korea BoP current account balance, Singapore retail sales, Thailand CPI

**Companies:** IndusInd Bank Ltd., Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd., Tata Asset Management Pvt., Bandhan AMC Ltd., ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co., Quantum Asset Management Co. Pvt., DBS Bank Ltd.
**Countries:** India, Iran, Singapore, China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand

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