# 一名X用戶週日發文指出，鑒於Terafab專案的規模，可能不會成功。

*semiconductor, genai · news · 2026-03-23 · Benzinga*

## Key points

- 埃隆·馬斯克透露Terafab將由兩個獨立晶圓廠組成，每個廠只生產一種晶片設計。
- 馬斯克聲稱超高產量將促使製程快速改進，即使在設計完成後亦然。
- 他表示，任何機器瓶頸都將觸發重新設計，除非已達物理極限。
- 馬斯克警告，若沒有Terafab，業界晶片/記憶體產出年增長率約受限於20%。

Terafab Invites Doubts On Sunday, user @markusdd5 posted on X that the Terafab project, given its scale, could be unsuccessful. “I assign a major probability to this either failing or delaying much beyond the intended timeline,” the user said in the post. He went on to explain that chip production is a complex process and is the “farthest humanity has ventured down the tech tree,” adding that he shared this opinion not to root against Musk, but to “manage expectations.” Elon Musk Weighs In Responding to the user, Musk remained bullish and optimistic about the Terafab goal, sharing that while several companies have successfully produced chips, “no companies have ever made fully reusable rockets or achieved SpaceX scale,” he said. The billionaire then went on to say that the project will comprise two separate fabs, each tasked with “making only one chip design,” which would simplify the process and would facilitate “linear” movement of the Front-Opening Unified Pod (FOUP). An FOUP is a container that securely and safely carries silicon wafers in a controlled environment during the chip manufacturing process. It is a crucial element of the process and allows automated machines to access the chips during the process. “A super high production rate allows us to test very quickly what steps can be deleted, simplified or sped up, even after the design is fixed,” he said, adding that current chip fabs relied heavily on “historical heuristics,” which were incorrect in some instances. “Anything that is a rate limiter at the machine level means that machine will be redesigned, unless already at limit of physics,” Musk shared, while also mentioning that new designs could be researched and produced in labs within less than a week, which would enable “high risk, high return ideas.” Musk then stressed the need for Terafab, which would help his enterprises reach “extreme” production scale. “Either we make Terafab or we will be stuck at the ~20% chip/memory output growth per year of the current industry,” he said. Tesla’s Terafab Project, Elon Musk’s AI Ambitions According to Benzinga Edge Rankings, Tesla scores well on the Momentum metric and also offers a favorable price trend in the Long term. Price Action: TSLA slid 3.24% to $367.96 at market close on Friday, but gained 1.17% to $372.25 during the after-hours session. Check out more of Benzinga's Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link. Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

**Companies:** Tesla, SpaceX
**Countries:** United States

[Read the full story on Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/03/51398168/elon-musk-defends-terafab-ai-chip-bet-as-skeptic-warns-of-delays-failure-risk-no-companies-have-ever)

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