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Morgan Stanley has cut its real GDP (gross domestic product) forecast for India by 30 basis points (bps) to 6.2 per cent in fiscal 2026-.
Morgan Stanley cut India's FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.2% from 6.5% due to West Asia conflict.
KEY POINTS
- If Brent crude spikes to $150/bbl for a quarter, FY27 GDP growth could drop to 5.7%.
- Morgan Stanley now expects Brent crude to average $95/bbl in FY27, up from $65/bbl earlier.
- Higher oil prices could widen India's FY27 current account deficit to 2.5% of GDP from 1%.
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