Pakistan has yet again missed the estimated gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of 4.2 percent for the ongoing fiscal year 2025-26.

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan has yet again missed the estimated gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of 4.2 percent for the ongoing fiscal year 2025-26 and achieved provisional growth of 3.7 percent. However, GDP growth has beaten estimates from international financial institutions - IMF’s 3.6%, ADB’s 3.5%, and World Bank’s 3%, for FY2025-26. The GDP growth has also exceeded Pakistan’s previous fiscal revised growth of 3.18% during FY2024-25. The size of the country’s economy slightly grew to $452.1 billion in FY26 from $408.2 billion in FY25, while the per capita income climbed to $1901 during the FY26 from $1824 in FY25. The 117th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC), held with secretary, Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiative in chair, approved the quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1 (revised), Q2 (revised), and Q3 (provisional) during FY2025-26 and annual growth rates for 2023-24 (final), 2024-25 (revised) and 2025-26 (provisional). The committee approved the revised first and second quarter estimates of FY2025-26. Overall GDP for Q1 and Q2 for FY2025-26 has witnessed revised growth of 3.92% and 4.05% as compared to 3.63% and 3.89% estimated in 116th NAC meeting. Despite downward revision in livestock from 6.18% to 4.67%, agriculture has posted growth of 2.95% during Q1 as compared to 2.72% presented earlier due to upward revisions in other crops from -6.90% to 1.93% and fishing 0.91% to 2.45%. The updated growth in industry during Q1 is 7.80% as compared to 8.86% presented earlier due to downward revisions in electricity, gas and water supply from 24.51% to 21.38% and construction from 19.22% to 15.93%. Due to improvement in information & communication from -29.66% to -7.63%, growth in services has improved from 2.44% to 3.16% in Q1. Like Q1, agriculture growth in Q2 has also improved from 1.76% to 2.64% mainly due to upward revision in other crops from -5.69% to 2.39% and fishing from 0.77% to 1.47%. The industry has witnessed downward revision from 7.40% to 6.68% mainly due to construction, which moved down to 6.42% as compared to 10.53% estimated earlier. The revised growth in services Q2 has slightly improved from 3.69% to 3.83% due to improvement in wholesale & retail trade from 4.46% to 4.66% and information & communication from -5.95% to -1.27%. The economy has posted a stable growth of 3.99% during Q3 of FY2025-26. The growth in agriculture, industry and services stands at 3.01%, 4.65% and 4.18% respectively. During Q3, all constituents in agriculture have posted positive growth i.e. important crops 1.10%, other crops 2.27%, livestock 3.70%, forestry 1.62% and fishing 1.37%. Despite witnessing contraction in mining & quarrying -2.55% and electricity, gas and water supply -13.53%, industry has provisionally grown by 4.65% mainly due to large-scale manufacturing 9.53%. The construction industry has posted a modest growth of 0.48% due to high growth i.e. 14.27% during Q3 last year. The overall growth in services is 4.18% during Q3 2025-26 with all the constituents contributing positively i.e. wholesale & retail trade 4.13%, transportation & storage 2.02%, information and communication 9.78%, finance & insurance activities 2.90, public administration and social security 8.88%, education 4.14%, health & social work 4.07% and other private services 3.35%. The committee approved the overall final growth of annual GDP during FY2023-24 at 2.62% as was estimated previously. The final growth rates in agriculture, industry and services during FY2023-24 are 6.40%, -0.97% and 2.25% respectively. Further, the overall revised growth during FY2024-25 is 3.18%, which was estimated at 3.06% in the previous meeting. In the revised estimates, agriculture has remained at the same level i.e. 1.53%, while industry and services have improved from 5.23% and 3.03% to 5.56% and 3.14% respectively due to improvements in construction from 6.54% to 8.77% and finance & insurance from 6.27% to 9.10%. The committee also approved the provisional growth of GDP at 3.70% during ongoing FY2025-26. The provisional growth rates in agriculture, industry and services are 2.89%, 3.51% and 4.09% respectively. In agriculture, important crops have shown modest growth of 0.65% due to mixed trend in production of wheat 4.3% from 28.396 to 29.605 MT, maize -2.68% from 9.037 to 8.794 million tons, rice 2.80% from 9.723 to 9.998 million tons, sugarcane 6.20% from 84.24 to 89.45 million tons and cotton -0.5% from 7.084 to 7.052 million bales. Despite high growth of 19.74% in previous year, other crops have shown a growth of 2.43% due to high growth in gram 50.4%, potato 27.6%, mangoes 11.6%, banana 30.8%, turmeric 25.1%, and chillies 9.2%. Cotton ginning & miscellaneous component has registered a modest growth of 0.07% because of low production in cotton crop. Livestock has increased by 3.75% as compared to 2.95% due to increase in output by 3.46% and decrease in green fodder -4.5%. Forestry and fishing have posted normal growth of 2.02% and 1.66% respectively. Industry in 2025-26 has shown a growth of 3.51% provisionally. Despite increase in the production of coal 4.52%, mining & quarrying industry has posted a modest growth of 0.38% because of decrease in production of natural gas -2.63%, crude oil -0.38% and other minerals. Large scale manufacturing, which is based on Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) (July-March), has witnessed a growth of 6.11% with mixed trend in the production of various groups mainly due to positive contribution in food 9.77%, tobacco 11.70%, petroleum products 10.92%, rubber products 14.26%, electrical equipment 11.87%, automobiles 61.66%, transport equipment 39.93%, furniture 20.45%, and other manufacturing (football) 23.06%. Electricity, gas and water supply industry has contracted by 10.63% primarily due to high base effect of FY2024-25 i.e. 29.60%, lower energy subsidies and slower growth in output of WAPDA & companies. Despite high base growth of 8.77% during last year, construction industry increased by 5.73% due to increase in construction-related expenditures by the private sector and general government. Services industry has also shown a growth of 4.09% during FY 2025-26 with positive contributions from all the constituents i.e. wholesale and retail trade 3.71%, transport and storage 2.31%, information & communication 7.52%, public administration and social security 8.54%, education 5.23%, human health and social work 6.85%, and other private services 3.69%. On the basis of latest figures of the national accounts aggregates for FY2025-26, the overall size of the economy stands at Rs126.9 trillion i.e. $452.1 billion as compared to Rs114.0 trillion i.e. $408.2 billion. Further, based on population projection of 2023-Census, per capita income in rupees is 533,629 i.e. $1901.

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