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aerospace / news / 2026-05-20 / TCPalm

SpaceX launch forecast details from Space Force 45th Weather Squadron.

The 45th Weather Squadron identifies Atlantic surface high pressure as shaping the pre-launch weather.

KEY POINTS

A slow-moving disturbance over the Bahamas is increasing atmospheric moisture for the launch area.
Peak inland rain chances are expected in the afternoon as sea breeze boundaries move away from the east coast.
Early morning convection from Bahamas disturbances could threaten weather constraint violations for both launch windows.
The main concern for launch is potential violation of the Cumulus Cloud Rule due to associated showers and clouds.

SpaceX launch forecast details from Space Force 45th Weather Squadron Rick Neale From the 45th Weather Squadron's launch forecast narrative: "An Atlantic surface high pressure nosed over southeast US continues to drive our local weather pattern. This feature will promote gentle to moderate east to southeasterly flow leading up to the day of launch," the forecast said. "Despite this flow promoting moisture advection from the Atlantic, peak rain chances will be focused inland during the afternoon hours while the sea breeze boundary is displaced away from theeast coast. A slow-moving disturbance over the Bahamas is helping supply this moisture and may also generate some convection in the early morning hours," the forecast said. "These showers and associated clouds will be our main concern for violation of weather constraints on both the main and backup windows with focus on the Cumulus Cloud Rule."

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