# The odds of a Fed hold firmed up in traders’ minds following Friday’s inflation data, which showed prices rose 3.3% over the past 12 months.

*business · news · 2026-04-13 · Fortune*

## Key points

- Recent inflation data showed a 3.3% annual rise, mainly driven by higher gas prices.
- Oil supply disruptions stem from Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz and reported mining of the area.
- Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran failed, with nuclear weapon concerns as a key obstacle.
- Odds of a near-term U.S.-Iran deal fell sharply on Polymarket, reflecting increased market pessimism.
- Despite labor market strength, traders now expect the Fed to hold rates due to persistent inflation.

**Countries:** Iran, United States, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq

[Read the full story on Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/04/13/investors-write-off-fed-rate-cut-iran-inflation/)

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