The India-US trade deal may help drive bilateral electronics and semiconductor trade towards $100 billion.

Synopsis The India-US trade deal may help drive bilateral electronics and semiconductor trade towards $100 billion and provide clarity to businesses even as concerns still linger over potential tariff risks linked to US Section 232 investigations, industry bodies and companies told ET. Listen to this article in summarized format The India-US trade deal may help drive bilateral electronics and semiconductor trade towards $100 billion and provide clarity to businesses even as concerns still linger over potential tariff risks linked to US Section 232 investigations, industry bodies and companies told ET. They believe the latest trade momentum, supported by bilateral frameworks such as the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) and Trust Initiative (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology), could de-risk investments and accelerate expansion across India’s electronics and semiconductor ecosystem. “The India-US trade deal will smoothen investments and expansions by improving market access, reducing systemic trade risks and enhancing supply-chain confidence,” said Ashok Chandak, president of India Electronics and Semiconductor Association (IESA) and Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), India. Mobile phone-led electronics manufacturing would further accelerate exports, helping drive electronics and semiconductor trade towards $100 billion as part of the broader $500-billion bilateral trade vision, he said. The US is home to over 50% of the world’s chip companies, he noted. “Policy predictability is critical for capital-intensive semiconductor projects, and this clarity will allow companies to commit capital, scale manufacturing and enter technology partnerships without hesitation,” Chandak said. Pankaj Mohindroo, chairman of India Cellular and Electronics Association (Icea), said the deal brings greater predictability to the trade relationship. “Smartphones, along with products such as semiconductors and laptops, were already exempt from the reciprocal tariff framework, giving India an early edge in electronics exports to the US,” he said. “With India now better placed on tariff rates compared to several competing manufacturing nations, the deal can accelerate the shift of US-led global value chain firms towards India as a preferred manufacturing destination.” While smartphones have anchored electronics trade with the US so far, Mohindroo said other electronics verticals are expected to scale rapidly in the coming years. Icea’s Indo-US Task Force for Electronics, which envisages $100 billion in electronics trade, will work closely with both governments and industry to convert the opportunity into sustained outcomes, he said. “We invite US lead brands across product segments to invest and manufacture in India.” For electronics manufacturing services (EMS) and design-led manufacturing, the deal offers better planning visibility. “It provides much-needed clarity on trade costs and significantly improves export visibility,” said Sneh Shah, whole-time director at Aimtron Electronics, an electronic system design and manufacturing (ESDM) service provider. He said the predictable environment will help original design manufacturers (ODMs) plan capacity expansion, deepen localisation and integrate further into global electronics supply chains. The benefits extend deeper into the semiconductor value chain, particularly in backend manufacturing. Shetal Mehta, cofounder of outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) company Suchi Semicon, said US chip companies reassessing supply-chain concentration risks are looking closely at cost predictability and long-term economics. “Indian OSAT facilities today offer scalable capacity, improving yields and quality systems aligned with international standards,” he said. A clearer tariff framework reduces friction in commercial negotiations and improves India’s chances of being included in multi-year backend manufacturing programmes rather than short-term pilot projects, Mehta added. Lower tariffs are also expected to boost India’s fabless and design ecosystem “at a time when American companies are reassessing sourcing strategies,” said Nikul Shah, cofounder and chief executive of IndieSemiC, a fabless chip design firm. India’s decision to eliminate tariffs on US technology imports would improve access to semiconductor IP, EDA tools and design ecosystems, he said. “This enables Indian companies to move beyond mature nodes toward more complex and application-specific designs and engage earlier in product development cycles with US OEMs,” Shah said. Over time, this could strengthen India’s position in high-value chip design and support a shift from services-led to product-led semiconductor innovation. Concerns remain But while Indian electronics products have so far been exempted from the US reciprocal tariffs, industry executives believe the threat of Section 232-linked curbs continues to hover over the sector. A similar probe into semiconductors earlier this month resulted in tariffs on a narrow set of chip products, pointing to the uncertainty facing global supply chains, they pointed out. The US remains India’s largest electronics export destination. Electronics shipments to the US stood at $16.74 billion in April-November of FY26, rising 120% annually, and accounting for 47.93% of India's total electronics exports of $34.93 billion over this period. This was mostly due to smartphone exports to US quadrupling to $12.54 billion, up from $4.18 billion in the same period of the preceding year. Apprehensions over a looming tariff shock have led to electronics exporters trying to tap into key alternative export markets, ET had reported earlier. While holding much lower market shares, the UAE (8.71%), the Netherlands (6.48%), the UK (4.86%) and Germany (3.71%) were the other major buyer of Indian electronics. “Last year, the US had repeatedly threatened separate tariffs on smartphones, computers. As a result, exporters are looking at other major markets to hedge risks,” an official at industry group CII said. Industry leaders also cautioned that trade deals bring competition along with opportunity. Jasbir Singh Gujral, managing director of EMS firm Syrma SGS, said the India-US deal, coming close on the heels of the India-EU free trade agreement, marks a turning point for Indian industry. “What a week for India,” he said. “Now it is up to the industry to leverage these two deals for aggressive expansion and go full blast. At the same time, we must be ready for competition, as trade deals are two-way traffic.” Gujral noted that high tariffs earlier made exports to the US unviable for many Indian electronics manufacturers. “With tariffs at 50%, exports to the US didn’t work for us. At around 19% now, India is favourably placed compared to competing geographies, which makes Indian companies competitive in the US market,” he said. With improved tariff positioning, stronger policy signals and rising investor confidence, industry executives believe the India-US trade breakthrough could mark a new phase of growth for India’s electronics and semiconductor ambitions. 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