# Geopolitical tensions in West Asia are impacting India's economy, leading UBS Securities to lower its GDP growth forecast to 6.2%.

*fintech · news · 2026-05-05 · The Economic Times*

## Key points

- UBS Securities has lowered India's GDP growth forecast for FY25 from 6.7% to 6.2%.
- CPI inflation forecast for India has been revised upward from 4.6% to 5.2% by UBS.
- Supply-side disruptions, such as a 25% contraction in fertiliser production, are already visible.
- India's fiscal deficit could temporarily overshoot the 4.4% target by 20–30 basis points if energy shocks persist.
- Even with de-escalation, inflation pressures in India may outlast growth disruptions.

**Companies:** UBS Securities
**Countries:** India

[Read the full story on The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/inflation-risk-more-persistent-than-growth-shock-says-tanvee-gupta-jain-amid-oil-price-surge/articleshow/130822134.cms)

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