# Kalshi traders have pushed the odds to nearly 45%, suggesting growing belief that Musk could prevail in his lawsuit against the AI company he co-founded.

*fintech · news · 2026-04-26 · Benzinga*

## Key points

- Judge Gonzalez Rogers has removed key fraud claims, leaving only charitable trust and unjust enrichment issues.
- Kalshi traders now give Elon Musk about a 45% chance of winning against OpenAI after these legal changes.
- The strongest contract-based claim was eliminated, causing a drop in market confidence about Musk's chances.
- Musk seeks over $100 billion in damages and non-monetary remedies, including leadership changes at OpenAI.
- Jury selection starts Monday and high-profile witnesses, including Musk and Sam Altman, may testify this week.

**Companies:** OpenAI
**Countries:** United States

[Read the full story on Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/04/52053065/elon-musk-vs-openai-kalshi-traders-push-odds-to-45-as-trial-date-approaches)

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