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Bank of America: March CPI likely rose 1.0% month-over-month, driven almost entirely by a 10.6% monthly jump in energy prices.
Bank of America forecasts a 1.0% monthly CPI jump in March, the largest since June 2022.
KEY POINTS
- Energy prices are expected to rise 10.6% month-over-month, driving nearly all headline inflation.
- Prediction markets now assign a 90% probability that U.S. inflation exceeds 3.5% in 2026.
- Core PCE is projected to rise 0.2% in March, but annualized rates remain above the Fed's target.
- The Fed faces added complexity as core inflation was already above 3% before the recent energy shock.
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